Huffington Post

(also posted online at The Huffington Post)

Two primary pieces of legislation are being debated in the Senate: the Bingaman energy bill and the bipartisan Kerry-Graham-Lieberman climate bill.

There are several factors at play in 2010 that will affect what any new climate & energy laws look like (and might even determine whether Congress passes any laws at all).

• First, the 2010 congressional elections are making things difficult because many Democrats facing close re-election fights are worried about supporting controversial (and even costly) legislation, and President Obama has used a lot of political capital to pass health care legislation, which leaves less for upcoming climate and financial regulation fights.
• Second, the intense partisanship that has developed in Congress over the last sixteen years means that most Republicans will fight to deny the Democrats and the President any victory. It will thus be very hard to find Republicans to replace wavering Democrats.
• Third, it is unclear yet that the business community that does support climate & energy legislation, especially the clean tech industry, can compete equally with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the coal & oil companies when making the economic, jobs, energy prices, and national security arguments. Environmentalists are unable to win this debate on their own.

The Senate climate bill is where the real difficulty lies; its cap-and-trade element being the most controversial with members of both political parties.  Nonetheless, there is an opportunity for earning some Republican support that will be needed to offset some wavering Democrats because of its sponsorship by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. (There is another bipartisan climate bill sponsored by Republican Susan Collins of Maine and Democrat Maria Cantwell of Washington. It offers a cap-and-dividend solution instead of cap-and-trade; this does not currently appear to be the primary vehicle for a new national climate policy.)

Advocates for Senate climate legislation, including the White House, are pushing back against calls to abandon a mandatory cap on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in favor of a stand-alone energy bill. Division among Democrats on whether a new climate law is possible this year goes all the way to the top. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) recently told The Associated Press that passage of the legislation was unlikely.  Other Democrats who suggest that energy-only legislation has a better chance of passing in an election year include Agriculture Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Policy Chairman Byron Dorgan of North Dakota.

But Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) spoke to the undercurrent of pessimism, “These are the dumb D.C. rumors that too often mark this city and are rendered meaningless on a daily basis. We can cross the finish line this year.” Sen. Graham said this week, “I am convinced that reason, logic and good business sense and good environmental policy will trump the status quo.”  And President Obama's top energy adviser, Carol Browner, insisted January 11th that the Administration's goal remains a "comprehensive bill" that touches on all corners of the energy and climate debate, including the controversial cap-and-trade program.